Six Forces of Emerging Technologies
Evolutionary Technologies
Evolutionary technology is the idea that a new technology is a progression or growth of a previous one (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014d). As a force, evolutionary technology drives emerging technologies and offers any user a look into the future of specific technologies. This force describes how some new innovations follow predictable and transformative patterns in which progressively more powerful forms of technology emerge (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014d). These technologies follow an evolutionary path that improves its performance over time.
Overhead Projector
The overhead projector was impacted by the evolutionary technological force of emerging technology. At the time the overhead projector emerged in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s, various forms of machines that projected images for audiences had already made their debut. Machines like the Carré Lampascopes, Lampadophore Lantern, Phantasmagoria Lanterns, Magic Lantern, and Opaque Projectors all preceded the overhead projector. The evolution of the overhead project is linked to several inventors dating back as early as the 13th century (“The Magic Lantern Society,” n.d.). The earliest recorded image is of a nun holding a projection lantern while projecting the image of the devil (Schwertly, 2014).
Later this projection device was called the magic lantern. Early users of the lantern used it as entertainment
devices to fascinate or scare audiences. Once technology developed the magic lantern began to be used for large
lectures, by photographers to display intriguing photos of travels and interesting subjects and for educational
purposes (Schwertly, 2014). The name magic lantern was replaced by the name opaque projector as oil lamps were
replaced by incandescent bulbs and microscopic and telescopic technology was utilized in the evolution of the this
projection device (“The Magic Lantern Society,” n.d.).
The overhead projector encouraged interactivity and users could create transparencies prior to classes or write
information directly on the transparency while the information is projected to the viewer. In the classroom it
offered teachers a new and innovative way to present information to the class.
Promethean Board
The force of technological evolution explains the emergence of the Promethean board in its functionality and many of its physical attributes. As an interactive whiteboard, the Promethean board shows a logical path from the overhead projector and its impact on the classroom. Promethean boards can be described as a sophisticated replacement of the traditional overhead projector (Governor Business Solutions, 2014). Like the overhead projector it is very interactive, promotes collaboration in the classroom and enhances hands on activities.
This force describes how some new innovations follow predictable and transformative patterns in which progressively more powerful forms of technology emerge (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014d). These technologies follow an evolutionary path that improves its performance over time.
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Rhymes of History
One of the six forces that drives emerging technology is called rhymes of history. The phrase comes from Mark Twain’s quote about how history rhymes a lot instead of repeating itself (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014h) and is used by Dr. David Thornburg to explain one of the six ways technology emerges. This force – rhymes of history- shows how past patterns of our society are reinvented through technological advancements, evolution, and development to satisfy our current needs. The force rhymes of history illustrates how a new technological development impacts its current environment yet rekindles or retrieves the same or similar needs that existed in the past. Rhymes of history does have aspects of the evolutionary technology force, but it differs in that it regenerates aspects of past societal needs that flow through history like a thematic thread.
Overhead Projector
The emergence of the overhead projector in the 1960’s (“Overhead Projectors | National Museum of American History,” n.d.) not only offered an excellent interactive method of instructional delivery for teachers it rekindles the same need teachers in the 1800’s had to present lessons or a problem to the class as a whole. The creation of the blackboard was an answer to that need. The blackboard gave teachers an opportunity to present information to the whole class instead of going to individual student to write on their slates (Concordia Online, 2012). The overhead projector offered the same functionality as the blackboards but was much more innovative.
Promethean Board
Like the overhead projectors’ rhyme of history with the blackboard, the Promethean board also fulfills the same need to present information to the whole class. The emergence of the interactive white board in education approximately thirty years after the emergence of the overhead projector rekindled the needs of the 1800 teachers and offered a new innovative revolutionary method of instructional delivery.
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Science Fiction
Science fiction is one of the six forces that drives emerging technologies. Inventors can be or are usually inspired to create innovated technologies they have read about in Science Fiction books or observed in Science Fiction movies. Science fiction in this case is not only for entertainment; it is also a force for invention (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014i) and a resource for inventors. In the movie Minority Report, there were several technologies that were not in existence in 2002 when the movie was produced. Since its premiere many of these technologies have emerged and there are a few that have not yet emerged.
Overhead Projector and Promethean Board
No evidence has been found to support the impact of the science fiction force on the overhead projector and the Promethean board.
Disruptive Technologies
Disruptive technologies or wild cards, as Dr. Thornburg refers to them, are brand new technologies that disrupt the evolutionary path of a current technology. This disruptive technology enters the market and meets the same functionality or better of the current technology (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014a) while at the same time is presented as more efficient, cost effective and offers more benefits (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014a). The disruptive technology eventually obsoletes the current technology because of its many attributes. It is called disruptive because it seems to emerge without a predictable trajectory.
Overhead Projector
Disruptive technologies apply to the emergence of the interactive whiteboard and the overhead projector. The overhead projector’s emergence in the classroom was a wild card. Since the 1800’s and the invention of the blackboard no other technology served the purpose the blackboard served until the overhead projector emerged as an instructional tool. Teacher could pre-prepare slides and have them ready for class. They could also preserve presentations on transparencies instead of having it erased from the blackboard. The overhead projector entered the classroom and met the needs of the teachers in a more sophisticated way.
Promethean Board
The interactive whiteboard disrupted the almost 30 year reign of the overhead projector as the revolutionary technology in the classroom. Even though the interactive whiteboards served the same functionality it was totally groundbreaking in the idea of the touch screen technology and quickly made the overhead projectors obsolete in many classrooms.
Increasing Returns
Increasing returns refer to a technology that is ahead of another technology, and the one that is ahead pushes further ahead to gain the advantage over the one that is behind because it loses further value or significance and can eventually become obsolete (Authur, 1996, p. 100).
Overhead Projector and Promethean Board
No evidence has been found to support the impact of the force increasing returns on the overhead projector and the Promethean board.
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Red Queens
The force red queen gets its name from Lewis Carroll’s book in which Alice is running as fast as she can along with the Red Queen but is not making any progress (Laureate Education (Producer), 2014g). Red Queens according to Dr. Thornburg’s definition refers to two technologies that are in fierce competition with each other to gain an advantage by meeting new needs and becoming better (Thornburg, 2013).
Overhead Projector
The force of red queens cannot explain the obsolescence of the overhead projector. The overhead projector did not have a competitor at the time of emergence or during its long reign.
Promethean Board
The Promethean board comes under the umbrella of interactive whiteboards. The force of the red queen has impacted the Promethean board. There are several interactive whiteboards on the market today but their two boards that are in direct competition; the SMART board and the Promethean board. There are institutions and educators who prefer one board over the other.
Red Queen: Promethean Boards OR SMART Boards
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